Bo Nickal (-420)
Three-time NCAA wrestling champion against a credentialed but outclassed grappler. Wrestling differential of this size historically wins 82%+ in UFC middleweight bouts.
Sean O'Malley (-360)
Five-inch reach advantage and superior counter timing. Zahabi's seven-fight streak came against unranked opposition — the leap in athleticism is the largest of his career.
Diego Lopes (-220)
Highest-threat jiu-jitsu on the card meets a striker who has not faced a sub artist of Lopes' caliber. Lopes can finish on the feet or the ground.
Josh Hokit (-200)
Wrestling base + cardio against a 41-year-old Lewis whose last five fights have ended early in either direction. If Hokit survives round one, he wins on volume.
Ilia Topuria (-185)
Undefeated champion with the cleanest precision boxing in the division. Gaethje's chin is the only real upset path.
Mauricio Ruffy (-150)
Chandler at 40 still owns one-punch upset potential. Ruffy's accuracy edge is real but the round-one chaos factor with Chandler is always live.
Ciryl Gane (-140)
Footwork beats the left hook on paper, but Pereira's punching power scales to any weight class. One clean exchange flips the outcome.
How to read this board
Implied probability strips the bookmaker's vig and tells you what each price thinks. A -185 line implies the favorite wins 64.9% of the time; if your model has them at 67%, that's +EV. Cross-reference with the predictions, the underdog value picks, and current UFC White House odds.