UFC White House Underdogs: Best Long-Shot Value Picks

UFC White House underdog board ranked by expected value. A 5-star value rating means the model edge exceeds the implied probability by 8% or more. All payouts shown on a $100 stake.

Underdog	Price	Payout	Value
Justin Gaethje	+155	$155 on $100	★★★★★
Alex Pereira	+120	$120 on $100	★★★★★
Michael Chandler	+125	$125 on $100	★★★★★
Derrick Lewis	+170	$170 on $100	★★★★★
Steve Garcia	+180	$180 on $100	★★★★★
Aiemann Zahabi	+285	$285 on $100	★★★★★
Kyle Daukaus	+320	$320 on $100	★★★★★

Best individual underdog plays

Justin Gaethje (+155)

Career path of finishing fights regardless of opponent. Topuria has not been tested by elite-level pressure. One clean overhand right wins it.

Alex Pereira (+120)

Left hook scales to any weight. Gane has been knocked out before. The cleanest single-shot path on the card.

Michael Chandler (+125)

Round-one chaos against an opponent with limited championship-round experience. Chandler still owns first-round knockout equity.

Derrick Lewis (+170)

Single-punch power against an unproven prospect. Lewis has 14 career KOs in the first round.

Best dog parlays

2-leg: Pereira + Gaethje (~+450). Both single-punch KO threats with clean upset paths.
3-leg: Pereira + Gaethje + Chandler (~+1100). All three live finishers against younger but less-tested opposition.
Long-shot: All seven underdogs (~+18000). A novelty ticket — chaos parlay for 1% bankroll only.

Cross-reference with the favorites board, full odds, and the betting guide for parlay construction principles.