Topuria vs Gaethje: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO R3
Topuria's left hook to the body is precisely the punch that exposed Gaethje's chin in deep waters against Holloway. Calf kicks land early, but Topuria adjusts by round two. The champion's accuracy (51%) and undefeated UFC record make this the safest title-fight pick on the card. Gaethje's path requires surviving 25 minutes against the cleanest finisher he's faced.
Pereira vs Gane: Ciryl Gane by Decision
Gane's footwork denies Pereira the stationary opponent he needs. Pereira's left hook scales to heavyweight, but landing it requires Gane to plant his feet in the pocket — a posture he avoids systematically. Expect 25 minutes of perimeter striking with Gane winning three rounds on output.
O'Malley vs Zahabi: Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO R2
O'Malley's height and reach (5'11", 72") create a 5-inch reach gap against Zahabi. Zahabi's seven-fight win streak came against unranked opposition; the step up in athleticism is severe. O'Malley finds the counter cross by round two.
Lewis vs Hokit: Josh Hokit by Decision
Lewis at 41 still possesses one-shot power but has lost three of his last five with declining cardio. Hokit's wrestling base and 4.6 SLpM output suggest a three-round grind. The veteran's chance is real but compressed to round one.
Ruffy vs Chandler: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO R1
Chandler at 40 fights one speed: explosive entries that have lately been timed by younger, longer opposition. Ruffy's spinning attacks and Fighting Nerds-trained timing should catch Chandler diving in. The Brazilian's combination accuracy (55%) is the deciding edge.
Nickal vs Daukaus: Bo Nickal by Submission R2
Nickal's three-time NCAA wrestling base translates directly. Daukaus is a credentialed grappler but cedes the takedown battle to elite collegiate wrestlers. Nickal rebounds from his first pro loss with a controlled finish.
Lopes vs Garcia: Diego Lopes by Submission R2
Lopes' jiu-jitsu (1.4 sub avg) is the highest threat-level submission game on the card. Garcia's eight-fight win streak features no grapplers of Lopes' caliber. Expect a striking exchange that hits the ground, then a Lopes finish.
How we make picks
Our predictions combine statistical edges (SLpM, accuracy, takedown rate, knockdown rate) with stylistic matchup analysis. We weight age, recent activity, and finishing trends, then cross-check against historical analogs. See the full UFC White House betting guide for parlays built from these picks, or the favorites breakdown for moneyline-only plays.